第4章 アメリカ：逆オイルショック/The Kremlin: The Iron Curtain 1985 Ch（2/2）

「私は同意します。「 ケイシーは、」私たちには、アメリカ国民の権利と自由を低下させる危険なイデオロギーから、アメリカ国民を守る責任があります。」 と述べました。

ベイカーも納得してうなずいた。

大統領は、危険なイデオロギーの蔓延と戦うことを約束していますが、自国民に対して働きかけるのは全体主義的な政権だけです。

ベイカー氏は自由な発想の持ち主で、集団よりも個人の権利を信じている。 この部屋で、この人たちの中で、彼はくつろぐことができる。 他のすべての国は、国民に自由を与えるのではなく、より多くの自由を与えようとしています。

アメリカ政府は、メディアや芸術をコントロールしようとしています。 経済をコントロールしようともするが、このような手段は彼らを弱体化させるだけで、結果的には自由度を高めることにつながるようだ。 アメリカは、不干渉主義を貫き、国民が繁栄できるように全力を尽くさなければならない。

アメリカが世界の腐敗に反対し始めれば、反発を招くだけだ。 これを防ぐには、邪魔にならないようにするしかありません。

「アメリカに神のご加護を！ソビエト連邦を倒すぞ たとえ、いくつかの国の協力が必要であっても。 アメリカ、イギリス、ドイツ、フランスなどの同盟国は、自分たちで共産主義者をつぶすことができますが、私たちは世界中の人々に自由のための戦いに参加してもらいたいのです。 その中には、中東の国々やアジアの国々も含まれています。 国際共産主義との戦いは、すべての文明にとっての戦いであり、たとえ自分の自由を犠牲にしてでも、何としても反対しなければならない。 私たちが戦うのは、最終的には「自由」のためであることを忘れてはならない。」

\"Yes, Your Excellency the President\" （はい、大統領閣下）。

男たちは皆、うなずいて去っていった。

今では奥様と二人きりです。

「あなた、疲れているみたいね 」とナンシーが言った。

「ただ、とても忙しい。 中東の問題を解決するためには、大きな決断が必要です」と述べています。

「私を助けようとしてくれているのはわかっている。 私に何かできることはありますか？」

「あなたはすでに多くのことを成し遂げました。 あなたは素晴らしいです。 ただ、私のそばにいてください。 私を励ましてくれれば、私たちはやるべき仕事を最後までやり遂げます」。

ナンシーは、彼の手を握って微笑んだ。

そう、ロマノフの命令でアメリカを攻撃した左翼テロリストを、ソビエトが密かに支援していたのだ。 これは、有能なリーダーを国家元首に据えることに価値があることを示す証拠です。

中東については、混乱することがわかっています。 いつも通りです。 イスラエル人が領土の喪失を防ぐために全力を尽くすというのは、ちょっとした驚きです。

----

1985年8月

サウジアラビアの宮殿の応接室で、アメリカのジョージ・プラット・シュルツ国務長官は笑顔でこう言った。「サウジアラビアのファハド国王殿、これで原油を大幅に増産する必要があり、サウジの原油輸出量を何百万バレルまで増やせるかというコンセンサスを得る必要があります。」

ファハドは顔をしかめて、「OPEC諸国が反乱を起こすだろう」と言った。 原油価格が下落するのは数年ぶりのことです。 私たちは、自分たちの石油を最も高い価格で売ることを喜んでいますが、それは合理的ではありません。 そのせいでみんなが苦しんでいる ......」

プラットはそれに頷きながら、「では、OPECの減産要求を無視して、クウェートとカタールも原油生産量を増やして不足分を補い、石油不足にならないようにしましょうと言った。 これらの国が石油を売ることができなくなれば、この供給量の増加が再び石油価格を上昇させることになります」。

「需要が伸びなかったらどうしよう？ さらに減産するのか？」

「奇跡的に需要が増えても減産はできるが、需要が少ないままだとプランBが必要になる。 つまり、原油価格の下落が産油国やソ連にとって一過性の収入の悪夢となるような、十分な原油生産量が必要なのである」。

ファハド王はうなずきながら、「そうだ、そうだ」と言った。 増産に同意するのは構わないが、サウジ国家警備隊の兵士を犠牲にしろとは言わないでほしい」。

「もちろんそんなことはありません。イラクとイランの戦争は続いていますし、サダムがあなたの脅威になることはまずありません。 それに、今こそ彼らと戦う時だ。 私を完全に信頼してください、名誉ある王よ」。

ファハドは微笑みながら、「アメリカ人を信用するべきだった」と呻いた。

プラットは肩をすくめて、すぐに「ああ、君の国の文化、食べ物、人々がとても好きなんだ」と付け加えた。 私はただ、あなた方の政府が腐敗していて無能だと思っているだけです。 私の政府を転覆させようとしている過激派グループへの資金提供をやめるべきだ」。

「そうそう、自分たちと同じ価値観を持っていない国とは、友好的な関係を築けないんだ。 60年代にアメリカが政府を転覆させようとしたことを覚えています。 あなたのヒッピー仲間には、対空砲でアメリカの飛行機を撃ち落とす訓練もしました」。

プラットは「そうだね、覚えているよ。でも昔のことだし、時代も変わったからね」とうなずいた。 ファイサル王は亡くなりましたが、私たちはパートナーシップとして緊密に協力することがいかに重要であるかを理解しています」と述べています。

「もちろんです。 その点では一致しています」。

「わかった、わかった。 悪魔が最後の一人を捕まえてくれますように」。

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Trickle-down economics works in theory, but the experiment of cutting back on key services and social programs to alleviate the growing debt has not worked in reality.

In the process of economic development, the distribution of wealth like water layer by layer from various industries and fields, from the social attributes of the high class downward flow, the final flow to the end of the wealth is the least, this is the law of the market economy, so the more developed a country\u0027s economy, the higher the Gini coefficient.

Furthermore, the more a country has developed, the less representative it is. In other words, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Inequality widens between the classes. Inequality also exists within the classes. The middle class begins to be divided.

In a free market economy, a widening income gap and a divided middle class means a weakened democracy. With the weakening of the middle class, the existence of a powerful elite is virtually assured.

At this point, capital will begin to expand haphazardly and do its best to intercept and plunder the downward flow of wealth. At the same time, the elite will use their position to pilfer from those who have a lower position in the hierarchy. By controlling capital, they will also control the government, forming a plutocracy.

A plutocracy is a government in which the rich control the government and everyone else is at their mercy.

Of course this whole scenario has already happened many times throughout human history. It can be reversed, but it is a very difficult process. Even if it can be reversed, it will take a long time and probably not every cycle will result in a successful outcome.

And the outlook for the future isn\u0027t exactly encouraging.

The rich get richer, the middle class get squeezed and the poor get poorer. If this process is not reversed, what starts out as a financial collapse becomes a complete collapse of society. Governments are not necessarily the problem in these circumstances, but rather the problem is the government\u0027s inability to maintain order.

These are the two roads that lie before us: Socialism or Plunder.

In the past, the rich and powerful always had a way out, but the difference now is that everyone is a potential target.

This is the cycle of capitalism. A cyclical economic crisis that inevitably leads to a collapse and then a resurgence of the plutocracy.

As a result, a serious debt crisis broke out in Latin America in July 1985. The US tried to keep it from spreading, but the Latin American governments were not able to pay their debts and went into default. The market for Latin American goods disappeared and the US itself found itself in danger of losing manufacturing jobs to countries like Mexico.

Inside the U.S. White House Council Chamber, July 1985

Treasury Secretary James Baker and CIA Casey stare at President Reagan as President Reagan puts the plan down.

\"Mr. President, what do you think of this proposal to solve the Latin American debt crisis?\" Casey asks.

\"We have been down that road before,\" the President responds, \"In the \u002750s and \u002760\u0027s. It didn\u0027t work then and it\u0027s not going to work now.\"

\"But if we default on our loans, we\u0027ll lose all credit,\"

Reagan thinks for a while and then says, \"No, I think that taking all our options off the table is the only way to solve this situation. It\u0027s a shame really. Those countries were really getting their stuff together. The Japanese were scared of our cars and the Europeans were scared of our technology. The Arabs wanted our oil, why wouldn\u0027t they want our influence? They should\u0027ve paid for it though.\"

\"So, are we just going to let them default?\"

\"No, Baker, I need you to work out a new economic development plan, South American countries to solve the debt problem must be economic development to do so. In addition, I need to visit to reach cooperation after allowing OPEC oil producers to increase production to further impact the price of oil.\"

\"Yes, Mr. President,\" the secretary of treasury replies.

\"What about me?\" asks the CIA director. \"I still have to take care of the problem with the terrorists.\"

\"Yes, yes, I\u0027ll deal with that too. I need a report on the damage to the Texas School,\" says the president.

\"What about me?\" asks the National Security Director.

\"You? You just keep an eye on the Soviets,\" the president says, \"they\u0027re getting antsy again.\"

With that, the National Security Director nods and leaves. The three remaining men are left standing around the table. Reagan looks at Baker and then at the wall of photographs above his desk.

\"These days,\" he begins, \"it seems like most of the photographs are of my administration, but I still love looking at all the old pictures of when I used to shake hands with the common man. They remind me of a simpler time.\"

\"Yes,\" Baker replies, \"the \u002770\u0027s were a simpler time.\"

Reagan turns and looks at his CIA chief and then points to the photographs of himself shaking hands with other world leaders.

\"God has given us a mission. To protect the American people. It\u0027s what he wants, it\u0027s what I want and it\u0027s what all of us want. We will stand together as one to secure the future of this great nation, Not just to protect the American people but to lead the fight against Communism wherever it raises its ugly head. We will continue to wipe out a cancer of a diseased mind wherever it is found. To do any less would be a betrayal of everything we stand for.\"

\"I agree,\" says Casey, \"we have a duty to keep the American people safe from dangerous ideologies that would weaken their rights and freedoms.\"

Baker nods in agreement.

Presidents work to fight against the spread of dangerous ideologies, but only the totalitarian regimes work against their own people.

Mr. Baker is a free thinker, a man who believes in the rights of the individual over the collective. Here, in this room, amongst these men, he feels at home. All others seek to give their people more freedom, not less.

The United States government has tried to control the media and arts. They\u0027ve even tried to control the economy, but those steps seemed to only harm those steps and ultimately led to even greater freedom. The U.S. must do what they do best, remain non-interventionist and allow the people to thrive.

If the U.S. starts crusading against the corruptions of the world, it will only cause backlash. The only way to prevent that is to stay out of it.

\"God bless America, we will defeat the Soviet Union! Even if we need the help of some countries. The U.S.A., U.K., Germany, France and our other allies are more than able to crush the commie hordes by ourselves, but it is our hope that the rest of the world will join us in this fight for freedom. This includes both Middle Eastern countries and Asian countries. The fight against international Communism is a fight for all of civilization and we must take a stand against it at all costs, even if that means sacrificing our own freedom. We must never forget that ultimately, freedom is what we are fighting for.\"

\"Yes, Mr. President.\"

The men all nod and leave.

It\u0027s just you and your wife now.

\"You seem very tired, my love,\" says Nancy.

\"Just very busy. Big decisions have to be made on how to deal with the trouble in the Middle East.\"

\"I know you\u0027re doing your best to help. What can I do to help?\"

\"You\u0027ve done so much already. You\u0027ve been wonderful. Just be by my side. Help encourage me and we\u0027ll do the work we\u0027re supposed to be doing.\"

Nancy holds his hand and smiles.

Yes, now the pesky Soviets are secretly supporting left-wing terrorists attacking the US under Romanov\u0027s orders. This is just more proof that it pays to have a competent leader as the head of the country.

With the Middle East, you know that\u0027s going to be a mess. As always. The Israelis are going to fight tooth and nail to prevent the loss of their territory, which is only slightly surprising.

----

August 1985

Inside the parlor of the Saudi Arabian Royal Palace, U.S. Secretary of State George Pratt Shultz smiled and said, \"Dear King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, we need this to reach a consensus that oil crude needs to be massively increased, and that Saudi oil exports can be increased to how many million barrels?\"

Fahd frowned and says, \"The OPEC nations will rebel. This is the first time in years we\u0027ve seen oil prices fall. We are all happy to sell our oil at the maximum price, but this is unreasonable. We are all suffering because of this...\"

Pratt nods in agreement and says, \"Then ignore OPEC\u0027s demand for production cuts, Kuwait and Qatar will likewise increase crude oil production to make up for any shortfalls so there won\u0027t be. Such an increase in supply will raise oil prices again once these nations have no more to sell.\"

\"What if the demand doesn\u0027t increase? Will we slash production still further?\"

\"Ah, well we can slash production even if by some miracle demand does increase, but we need a plan B in the event that the demand remains low. In short, oil production needs to be more than enough to make the fall in oil prices a one-time revenue nightmare for oil-producing countries and the Soviet Union.\"

King Fahd nods and says, \"Yes, yes. I\u0027m happy to agree to more production, but I hope you\u0027re not suggesting that we sacrifice soldiers from the Saudi National Guard.\"

\"Of course not, the war between Iraq and Iran continues, and Saddam is not likely to be a threat to you. Besides, this is the time to fight them. You can trust me completely, your honorable king.\"

Fahd laughs and snorts, \"I should have known better then to believe an American.\"

Pratt shrugs and quickly adds, \"Oh, I do love your country\u0027s culture, your food, and your people. I just find your government to be corrupt and incompetent. You should stop funding radical groups that seek to overthrow my government.\"

\"Oh yes, we can\u0027t have any friendly relations with a country that doesn\u0027t have the same values as us. I remember when the U.S. tried to overthrow our government in the \u002760s. Why, we even trained your hippie friends in anti-aircraft guns to shoot down the American planes.\"

Pratt nods, \"Yes, I remember that, but that was long ago and times have changed. King Faisal is dead and we understand how important a factor it is that our partnership works closely together?\"

\"Yes, you bet. We\u0027re on the same page on this.\"

\"Good, good. May the devil take the hindmost.\"